Most people are probably sick of hearing about Iraq at this point, but I think that it is with good cause that it is such an important issue in American politics today. But I would also argue that it is one of the oddest and most schizophrenic issues out there.

In this piece, I will evaluate a bunch of the rhetoric floating around out there, but to begin, I will argue that there are only two positions on the United States in Iraq that are intellectually defensible.

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#1 – The Realist Position: Get Out Now

The realist position is morally nihilistic (should appeal to Skeptical Mind and Casham), and argues that the United States should basically look out for its own interest. In short, the United States is losing money and US lives by staying in Iraq, and should therefore withdraw immediately.

There is a realist argument that we should stay in Iraq as well, but in my opinion, it isn’t very defensible. It argues that if we leave now, Iraq will be come an Al Qaeda breeding ground, and the terrorists will follow us home.

I am skeptical that the terrorists will follow us home if we leave Iraq. A) that is not as easy as it sounds and B) they have a lot of other targets that are much more proximate and easy to hit like secular Arab rulers and Israel. Moreover, why make it easy for them to hit us by staying there? Much better to continue counter terrorist operations, but from a much more nimble and flexible position.

In short, if one takes a realist standpoint, I think it is clear that we should leave Iraq (or at least cease any policing and nation-building functions of our troops).

#2 – The Moralist Position: Finish What We Started

This stance is commonly known as the “pottery barn” rule: you break it, you buy it. This stance may (or may not) acknowledge that invading Iraq was a bad idea and that America is paying for it. However, the moralist side argues that that whether it was a good idea or not is irrelevant to what the US should do now; actually, the fact that it was wrong to begin with makes it even more imperative that we should stay because now America has a responsibility to the Iraqi people.
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As I said, I think both of these positions are at least intellectually coherent, and I think that the reality is that most people’s views fall somewhere in between realist considerations and moral ones. What I still can’t figure out, however, is the protests. My suspicion is that the thousands of demonstrators protesting in DC do not see themselves as old school realists looking out for American interests. Rather, they very much see themselves as making a moral argument.

Now, let’s take a look at some of their arguments to determine if any of them make sense.
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“Things can’t get any worse” / “The US presence is actually making things worse”

I listed this argument first because I think it is empirically questionable rather than inherently illogical. Some people are entirely convinced that the US presence is making the situation worse and that fewer Iraqis will die if we leave. If we were to assume that is indeed what would happen after a US pullout, then there would certainly be a viable moral argument for leaving.

However, I don’t think that is what most serious analysts envision following a US withdrawal. I think that very quickly we would not be using “civil war” as a dirty word to describe the situation in Iraq, but rather “genocide.” For instance, check out this Brookings analysis of how the US might deal with the humanitarian crisis of an “Iraq burning” following a pullout.

Proponents of this position point to the fact that international Al Qaeda volunteers are entering Iraq because of the US presence there. Hence, if we leave there will be less violence. The reason I think this logic is flawed is because it ignores the much more fundamental split between Shia and Sunni, about which much has been written. Not only is the US presence the only thing preventing ethnic cleansing between these two groups, the void left by a US withdrawal would allow a larger ideological conflict between states like Saudi Arabia and Iran to play out on Iraqi soil.

The second notion (“it can’t get any worse”) I think is less defensible. Sure it can. For Iraqis, it can get a lot worse. If you are an insurgent and suddenly no longer have to worry about any US troops, you can kill more people. Doesn’t really seem like that complicated an equation.

“I was against invading Iraq from the beginning”

This is probably the worst reason for being in favor of withdrawal, so I will spend little time on it. Whether or not someone was for or against the war has nothing to do with whether or not we should stay or leave now. In fact, messing up the Middle East increases our obligation to fix it.

“We should not waste any more American lives on this unjust war”

This is probably one of the most common out there on the left. Anti-war rallies rely upon testimonies from deceased soldiers’ families like Cindy Sheehan. Such testimony and arguments are valid, but only for a realist. The implication of this sort of argument is that Iraqi lives are worth less than American ones, generally not the position advocated by the left. Or, to be fair, this argument could also be made as a corollary to the questionable argument that the US presence is making the situation worse.

I wonder if those advocating this position would stick to it in other contexts. I.e., for someone holding this view, America has no business in Sudan, was right not to intervene in Rwanda, and should go right on ahead ignoring human rights issues to keep oil prices low for American consumers. However, my suspicion is that those demonstrating for an Iraq withdrawal would disagree vehemently with all of the above.

“Iraq needs a political solution, not a military one”

If this argument is made intelligently, then there is a grain of truth to it. (One could also make a fair argument that security is a prerequisite for a political solution). However, it is unfair to make this argument without getting into specifics. What kind of a political solution? Which brings me to the next point…

“We need to provide incentives and benchmarks to persuade the Iraqi government to solve its own problems”

I want to tear my hair out every time I hear this gem. Okay, so let me get this straight, the problem is that the Iraqi government doesn’t want to succeed? If they fail, there is a good chance that, if they don’t scram fast, leaders like Maliki will die should the shit really hit the fan. I don’t know how you make someone want success more whose country is on the brink of all out civil war.

Moreover, what kind of incentive is the ultimatum of withdrawal going to provide the government? Is Maliki really going to crack down on the Shia militias if he thinks the US might be gone tomorrow, because guess what, Iran isn’t going anywhere.

“We need to engage Iran and Syria, you know, be more multilateral”

Like the “political solution” argument, I think this could be a fair argument, but for lack of specificity ends up being a cop-out.

I agree we should engage Iran, but what should we offer them? They aren’t just going to give us something for nothing because our diplomats wore nice cologne. In order to be credible, advocates of this position need to a) specify what we should offer (i.e. are we willing to trade a nuclear-armed Iran for a stable Iraq?) and b) make a case that it actually has a chance of making a significant dent in the quagmire that is now Iraq.

“We did it for the oil / the US is an imperial power”

This is nothing more than trash talk in regard to this particular question. So what if we did it for the oil? That doesn’t change the issue at hand.

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There might well be a) some fair realist arguments for staying and b) some defensible moralist arguments for leaving that I missed here or treated unfairly. If so, I would be interested in hearing them.

My explanation for the insane disconnect between action and ideology surrounding this issue is the following:

Liberals are rightly very upset about a conflict that is increasingly looking like a monumental mistake. To support a troop surge or, even just not withdrawing, to them would be supporting the devil incarnate: George W. Bush. The unpalatability of taking the same stance as the president even if for a very different reason explains the irrationality of so many of their arguments.

To be fair, I am not arguing that liberal ideas about the Iraq War are inherently or even on average more irrational than conservative ones; clearly, the neo-con arguments for invasion were questionable at best.